ON A SURPRISING RESULT OF TWO-CANDIDATE ELECTION FORECAST BASED ON THE FIRST LEADERSHIP TIME

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Statistics in Transition New Series

Polish Statistical Association

Central Statistical Office of Poland

Subject: Economics , Statistics & Probability

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ISSN: 1234-7655
eISSN: 2450-0291

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VOLUME 19 , ISSUE 2 (June 2018) > List of articles

ON A SURPRISING RESULT OF TWO-CANDIDATE ELECTION FORECAST BASED ON THE FIRST LEADERSHIP TIME

Czeslaw Stępniak

Keywords : two-candidate election, winner, leader, leadership time, predicting number of votes for winner, Maximum Likelihood

Citation Information : Statistics in Transition New Series. Volume 19, Issue 2, Pages 351-357, DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/stattrans-2018-020

License : (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Published Online: 29-July-2018

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ABSTRACT

This is a simple but provocative note. Consider an election with two candidates and suppose that candidate A was the leader until counting n votes. How to use this information in predicting the final results of the election? According to the common belief the final number of votes for the leader should be a strictly increasing function of n. Assuming the votes are counted in random order we derive the Maximum Likelihood predictor of the final number of votes for the future winner and loser based on the first leadership time. It appears that this time has little effect on the predicting.

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