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Statistics in Transition New Series

Polish Statistical Association

Central Statistical Office of Poland

Subject: Economics, Statistics & Probability


ISSN: 1234-7655
eISSN: 2450-0291





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VOLUME 19 , ISSUE 4 (December 2018) > List of articles


Ping Gao / Hikaru Hasegawa

Keywords : Bayesian analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), R2BayesX, Spatial effect, Structured additive regression (STAR) models

Citation Information : Statistics in Transition New Series. Volume 19, Issue 4, Pages 645-670, DOI:

License : (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Published Online: 15-March-2019



Chronic diseases have become important factors affecting the health of elderly Chinese people. Because the prevalence of chronic diseases varies among the provinces, it is necessary to understand the spatial effects on these diseases, as well as their relationships with potential risk factors. This study applies a structured additive regression model and the R2BayesX package to conduct a Bayesian analysis. The data are taken from the 2000, 2006, and 2010 Chinese Urban and Rural Elderly Population Surveys. The findings are as follows: (1) the following covariates have considerable effects on chronic diseases in general, and on specific chronic diseases (hypertension and heart disease) (in descending order): census register (rural or urban), gender, smoking, drinking, province, time, age, cultural activities, years of education, and sports activities; (2) the effect of marital status is negligible; (3) province is a critical factor, with the highest spatial effect appearing in two types of provinces: economically developed provinces, and economically backward provinces; and (4) time also has considerable effects. Based on these findings, the government should further strengthen its investment in rural areas and economically backward provinces as a cost-effective intervention, and should educate the population on the harmful effects of smoking and drinking alcohol on health.

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