Towards a target employment rate within age and gender groups


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Statistics in Transition New Series

Polish Statistical Association

Central Statistical Office of Poland

Subject: Economics, Statistics & Probability


ISSN: 1234-7655
eISSN: 2450-0291





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VOLUME 22 , ISSUE 4 (December 2021) > List of articles

Towards a target employment rate within age and gender groups

Stanisław Jaworski * / Zofia Zielińska-Kolasińska *

Keywords : employment rate, exponential smoothing, forecasting, state space approach

Citation Information : Statistics in Transition New Series. Volume 22, Issue 4, Pages 213-225, DOI:

License : (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Received Date : 24-January-2021 / Accepted: 07-July-2021 / Published Online: 08-December-2021



Quarterly employment rates in European countries are analysed in terms of the likelihood of achieving a specific employment rate within age and gender groups in a five-year horizon. The German employment rate serves as a benchmark for this research. The likelihood is estimated by a Monte-Carlo simulation based on the class of exponential smoothing models. The research presents a pessimistic prognosis of employment rates in European countries with respect to young and partly to older workers.

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